Wafer prices drop back slightly, while the overall price of solar cells continues to decline [SMM Silicon-based PV Morning Meeting Summary]

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SMM May 23 report:

Electrode

Price

This week, electrode prices came under renewed downward pressure. The quotes for ordinary power carbon electrodes with diameters of 960-1,100mm were 6,500-6,700 yuan/mt, down 800 yuan/mt WoW. The quotes for electrodes with a diameter of 1,272mm were 6,900-7,100 yuan/mt, down 900 yuan/mt WoW. The quotes for ordinary power graphite electrodes with diameters of 960-1,100mm, 1,272mm, and 1,320mm were 9,900-10,100 yuan/mt, 10,900-11,100 yuan/mt, and 11,900-12,100 yuan/mt, respectively, all down 1,000 yuan/mt WoW.

Supply

Due to weak downstream demand, producers have been destocking slowly, resulting in significant inventory pressure. The overall market is oversupplied. Moreover, since May, the prices of electrode raw materials have continued to decline, with a drop of approximately 700-1,000 yuan/mt, providing weak support for electrode prices.

Demand

The operating rate of silicon metal plants remains low, and demand is weak. Therefore, producers are cautious in procuring raw material electrodes and are exerting strong downward pressure on prices, primarily making just-in-time procurements.

Silicon Metal

Price

This week, the spot price of silicon metal continued to weaken. Yesterday, the SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 8,500-8,800 yuan/mt. The main futures contract continued to fall, breaking below 8,000 yuan/mt and trading near 7,900 yuan/mt. As the futures market declined, suppliers of silicon metal followed suit by lowering their quotes, causing the center of silicon metal transactions to shift downward.

Production:

In June, the supply of silicon metal is expected to increase due to planned production resumptions at some large plants and an increase in the operating rate of silicon enterprises in southwest China.

Inventory

Social Inventory: According to SMM statistics, the total social inventory of silicon metal in major regions was 582,000 mt on May 22, a decrease of 17,000 mt WoW. Among this, the social general warehouse inventory was 130,000 mt, a decrease of 2,000 mt WoW, while the social delivery warehouse inventory was 452,000 mt (including unregistered warrants and spot portions), an increase of 15,000 mt WoW. (Excluding Inner Mongolia, Gansu, etc.)

Wafer

Price

The market prices for N-type 18X wafers are 0.93-0.95 yuan/piece, and for N-type 210RN wafers, they are 1.05-1.1 yuan/piece. This week, prices have dropped back slightly, with low-price orders continuing to emerge, mainly concentrated in large-volume orders.

Production

Global wafer production in May is expected to be around 59GW, a decrease of approximately 3GW MoM from April, primarily due to some specialized enterprises reducing their production schedules based on cost and market considerations.

Inventory

This week, the overall market transactions were sluggish. Wafer inventory decreased slightly based on the supply-demand balance of solar cells.

Solar Cell

Price

The price of high-efficiency PERC182 solar cells (with an efficiency of 23.2% and above) was 0.275-0.295 yuan/W, with a downward price trend and significant export demand. There was no transaction volume in the PERC210 solar cell market.

The mainstream quotation for Topcon183 solar cells (with an efficiency of 25% and above) was around 0.255-0.26 yuan/W. The mainstream transaction price for Topcon210RN was 0.265 yuan/W, with a quotation range of 0.26-0.27 yuan/W. The price of Topcon210 solar cells was around 0.275-0.28 yuan/W. There was a divergence in size trends: orders for 183 decreased, leading to lower transaction prices, while orders for 210RN increased due to distributed demand, resulting in higher transaction prices. The overall price of solar cells continued to decline, with minor fluctuations expected.

The mainstream quotation for HJT30% silver-coated copper (with an efficiency of 25% and above) was 0.34-0.35 yuan/W, with limited direct sales and self-sufficiency among integrated manufacturers.

Production

In May, the global planned production of solar cells reached 60-61 GW, representing a production cut of approximately 7.20% from April. In May, Topcon production decreased by over 8% WoW, with weakened demand for solar cells, and some inventory buildup is expected among enterprises.

Inventory

Module plants adjusted their procurement needs, resulting in fewer orders. Solar cell plants adjusted their production schedules to control inventory, which increased by 25.01% WoW, with the growth rate decreasing by 51 percentage points from the previous week.

PV Film

Price

PV-grade EVA

The price of PV-grade EVA was 10,200-10,650 yuan/mt. The domestic delivery-to-factory price of PV-grade POE was approximately 12,000-14,000 yuan/mt, with POE prices remaining stable.

PV Film

Currently, the mainstream prices for PV films are as follows: 420g transparent EVA film is priced at 5.38-5.59 yuan/m², 420g white EVA film at 5.88-6.09 yuan/m², 380g EPE film at 5.51-5.7 yuan/m², and 380g POE film at 6.84-7.22 yuan/m².

Production

In April, the planned production of PV-grade EVA increased by 8.22% MoM, and the planned production of PV film increased by 9.07% MoM.

Inventory

Currently, petrochemical enterprises have low inventory levels, and the transaction pace for PV-grade EVA has slowed down recently.